The Implications of the U.S.-China Trade War for the Legitimacy of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the Guardian of the International Trade Order
Dwi Fauziansyah Moenardy*
Rizal Budi Santoso
Rizqi Muttaqin
The central issue motivating this study is the growing disconnect between the WTO's rules-based mandate and its declining effectiveness amid major-power trade conflicts. This study analyzes the implications of the trade war between the United States and China on the legitimacy of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the guardian of international trade order. Using a qualitative approach with a case study of the 2018–2025 period, this research employs perspectives from Institutional Economics, International Trade Regime Theory, Institutional Legitimacy Theory, and Hegemonic Stability Theory. Data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis and critical discourse analysis. The findings indicate that unilateral actions, tariff retaliation, and the paralysis of the Appellate Body have weakened the function and legitimacy of the WTO as a rules-based system. Trade conflicts have tended to shift from legal mechanisms toward power-based settlement approaches. Nevertheless, developing countries, including Indonesia, continue to regard the WTO as an important forum and play a role in sustaining the international trading regime. This study concludes that the WTO is experiencing not only a policy crisis but also a crisis of legitimacy and global trust amid shifting dynamics of international economic power.
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